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Will we ride this Sunday?

Updated Saturday night

But be prepared for suboptimal riding conditions in the hills and anyplace else where heavy rain has fallen this week ... which is, come to think of it, just about everywhere.

I checked out the route today, and Calaveras is much more debris-laden than usual, and there are countless places where small to medium mudslides have recently occurred and have been cleared. The saturated ground means that conditions can change rapidly, even tomorrow after the rain stops.

On the plus side, however, Alameda Creek is way above its banks, and the scenes in Niles Canyon are far different from what you usually see there. You'll probably want to take photo breaks ... remember to pull safely and completely off the road when you do so, and only in places where there's enough space for you to be completely off the road while taking your pictures.

Don't be surprised to see mud on the road. And when you do, make every effort to avoid it -- it can be as slippery as ice or gravel and send you to the ground in seconds. Also, watch out for fresh potholes (many filled with water, so you can't judge their severity) and debris along the shoulders. And at the approach to the Dumbarton Bridge, the recent restoration work does indeed appear to have eliminated the threat of serious flooding on the west side. There were still a couple small spots of standing water on the east-side approach, however, but they're easily avoidable.

The last remaining slight chance of showers for Sunday seems to have gone out of the official NWS forecast, at least until Sunday night. So it looks like I'm going to be optimistic and not even put the fender on my bike after all. Temperatures will be seasonally cool -- we likely won't get out of the 50s -- so dress warmly. Afternoon headwinds as we cross the bay could make it feel even cooler.

Bottom line: Bring a healthy attitude and proper clothing tomorrow, and we'll have an interesting adventure, one way or the other.